Why You Should Stock Up On Your Favorite Stuff.

Every single thing that we buy, whether it’s a consumer item or food, comes from a supplier, probably a retail store. The supplier gets the goods from a distributor, who gets them from a manufacturer. The manufacturer makes or assembles their products from materials that they got from suppliers. By the time a product reaches us, the end consumer, it has traveled through at least one supply chain, but usually more. Some products, like cars or computers, rely on dozens of supply chains. Even simple products like raw vegetables go through at least three steps in a supply chain to get to the store.

Supply chains work well while things run smoothly. The availability of cheap consumer goods around the world is testament to that. But sometimes a link in the chain fails and the whole systems stops. It could be a raw material shortage, unexpected high demand, truck or port strikes, bad weather, war, or terrorist strikes. Sometimes, when there is enough material already in the supply chain, the temporary shortage can be overcome. But what if the shelves are bare when the shortage occurs?

Starting in the 1950’s in Japan and 1980’s in the US, companies began using an inventory system called Just In Time (JIT). Having too much inventory in the warehouse and supply chain means waste. Something sitting on the shelf cost money to make, and costs money to sit there, but hasn’t made any money back. The more goods on the shelf, the more money tied up in inventory. Among other things, JIT introduced the concept of “lean inventory”, meaning that materials flow through supply chains more frequently and faster. Nobody’s precious capital is tied up in wasteful inventory because nobody holds the materials for long.

JIT is called an information rich system. Smaller quantities pulse through supply chains more rapidly. So ordering of more materials must be done more frequently. All parties up and down the supply chain must be synchronized, or interdependent as they call it. More people have to keep track of more stuff. It’s really quite a fascinating and brilliant system, as long as everything functions as planned.

The strengths of JIT are many. So are the weaknesses. We unknowingly enjoy the benefits of JIT every day. But what happens in a JIT world gone wrong?

Food supplies come to mind right away. The distribution of food is based on the predictable buying habits of the people. A sudden change in demand can create trouble in a JIT system. A typical supermarket has only a few days supply of food at a given time, based on people’s shopping habits. Even a modest increase in buying would cause at least temporary shortages of some items. Plus the national and global stockpiles of non-perishable foods stand at only 5 weeks, not enough to deal with a demand surge of any size. And there is no guarantee that food could be shipped to the areas with the greatest demand. Stockpiles are located regionally, and usually not next to areas of greatest population.

In addition to the numerous ways a supply chain could be physically compromised, add to that a breakdown in the information technology needed to keep the JIT system flowing. Temporary power failures could disrupt the chain. Every single link is interdependent. One broken link brings down the whole chain. Add to this the ongoing problems with security breaches, hackers, and viruses.

We must remember that the term “supply chain” is an analogy. The “links” are really locations somewhere on the planet, connected by elaborate transportation systems. Sometimes the “links” are thousands of miles apart. Damaged road or rail surfaces, foul weather, strikes, sabotage, and travel restrictions could break a supply chain.

The possibility of breakdowns is not theoretical. Failures in JIT systems happen all the time. The extreme vulnerability of JIT was exposed immediately after September 11, 2001, when the government grounded air cargo planes, prevented ships from docking at seaports, and stopped trucks at border crossings. Retailers couldn’t get needed merchandise, and manufacturers suffered parts shortages. The entire country suffered a shock to supply chains. Industry mavens, though, instead of increasing safety stocks to pad against disruption, are looking to even more sophisticated information technology to somehow minimize disruptions. Basically, they plan to continue the lean inventory strategy, which for the man on the street, can mean empty shelves in no time.

When and if something happens that triggers a stampede to the supermarket, it will be too late to stock up. The time to start laying in supplies now, while few people are doing it. There is already a nationwide shortage of freeze-dried food and some calibers of ammunition. Even the government is discreetly starting to tell people to stock up on food. I refuse to predict what could happen to start a shortage scenario but I’m making my own educated guesses. If you believe this is fear-driven thinking, wait until you see the fear of a population faced with empty store shelves. My advice is to immediately begin the calm and methodical process of securing at least 6 months worth of food. Remember to keep a good attitude.

Following is a chart that shows how much food to store. It is intended as an example. There are many strategies to raising and storing food. Pick one that suits you, figure out the logistics, and get to work.

Guidelines For Creating Your Own Food Reserve Units Utilizing Bulk Commodities & Freeze-dried Ingredients (based on 1 adult for 1 year at 1,459 calories per day)

Food Type/Calories per pound/Pounds to Store
Grains & Cereals (dry)/1600/300
Beans & Legumes (dry)/1500/75
Nonfat Milk Powder/1650/50
Cheese Powder/2630/20
Beef, freeze-dried/3400/5
Chicken, freeze-dried/2550/5
Egg mix/2469/10
Textured vegetable protein/1500/10
Vegetables, freeze-dried/dehyd/1600/30
Sprouting seeds/1500/6
Honey/1380/30
Salt/ 0/5
Other Foods/Calories per pound/Shelf life
Evaporated milk, canned/620/1year +
Canned beef, turkey, chicken/950/1year +
Tuna, canned/ 500/1year +
Vegetables, canned/ 250/1year +
Fruits, dried/1200/6 months +
Fruits, canned, no sugar/200/1year +
Oils/4000/1year +
Peanut butter/2640/1year +
Crackers/1900/2 years +
Gelatin, dry/1520/5 years +
Beans, cooked, canned/475/1 year +
Almonds, shelled/2715/1 year +

Calorie Source- USDA HANDBOOK NO. 8

Teenage boys, Some Men to Age 50, and Pregnant or Nursing Women May Require 10 TO 20% More Nutrition and Food Than The “Average” Adult. Young Children, Older Men or Women May Require 10 TO 40% Less Food.